Want to feel more confident that you’re making the right decisions? Check out how a few simple steps can dramatically improve your decision process. — By: Paul Schoemaker

It’s not often that a CEO sends a public note to key constituents taking responsibility for a bad decision.

But Netflix CEO Reed Hastings did exactly last September in his apology letter to customers.  While some bloggers commented that the confession was like suicide, many others found his willingness to share the decision making process refreshing. He wrote:

Last year, Netflix create Owikster to spin-off the video streaming part of its business from its core DVD-by-Mail operation. To encourage on-line downloading, it unbundled its virtual and snail mail offerings, jacking up the combined price about 60 percent. Hundreds of thousands of enraged customers dropped their subscriptions in response.  Netflix’s profit was badly hurt as well as its image and trust: its stock price has declined over 65 percent during the past year.

One wonders how a successful entrepreneur seasoned by years of growing his company could make such a bad call.  In his note, Hastings revealed the flawed assumptions about what customers’ really valued and he acknowledged that their priorities were not properly evaluated.  He bared his thinking process and offered a mea culpa, and in the process invited derision as well.

The bigger the job, the loftier the title, the weightier most decisions get.  Read More.

JP Morgan’s recent multi-billion trading loss reminds us that matters of risk entail a healthy dose of consideration. Here’s what you need to know. — By: Paul Schoemaker

On one level, the answer is simple. If an investment reduces your risk, it is a hedge. If it increases your risk, it is a bet.

So, now it all depends on how you define risk. Also, there is the tricky issue of whether increases in risk are compensated by higher expected return. And this raises the most vexing question of all, namely how to define the relevant portfolio against which the change in risk is measured. This question is essential to the Volcker rule which holds that banks too big to fail should not be making big bets with house money since the upside would accrue to Wall Street whereas Main Street would have to bail out the banks if it all goes sour. Read More.

Press Contact for DSI:
Samantha Howland
Managing Partner
610-234-0793
Howland@DecisionStrat.com

DSI Quick Poll: Business Leaders Highlight Vulnerability in Future Planning

Uncertainty Seen as Growing Issue in Business Environment

CONSHOHOCKEN, PA., APRIL 25, 2012 – In an era where the average corporation has a life expectancy of only 40 or 50 years, business leaders continue to plan for “more of the same,” according to a survey released today by DSI, a leading future-centered consulting firm.  Compounding this, the survey revealed that more than three out of four (76 percent) of today’s leading business professionals believe their organizations are unprepared for a radically different future.  This lapse highlights the need for a drastically different approach to opportunity and risk in order to help organizations increase longevity.

Nearly 30 percent of those polled identified industry uncertainty as the most difficult issue, or force, to manage within their organization.  This was second only to technology evolution.  Studies from the Society for Information Management show that technology has been the top management concern among executives since 2007, and yet uncertainty is quickly gaining on technology as the greatest challenge to organizations.

“While technology and innovation have been the major source of disruption over the past 20 years, that’s all changing.  We’ve seen numerous examples of former business powerhouses struggling, and in some cases failing, to cope with the uncertain future,” said Steve Krupp, CEO, at DSI.  “The recent economic volatility has really highlighted the need for long-term, adaptable business plans that can prepare organizations for vastly different futures.  Yet, these plans continue to fall short.”

In a positive step, the survey results show that business leaders recognize the need to prepare for and focus on the future, as nearly 40 percent of respondents characterize their current approach to planning as “future-centered.”  Business leaders have recognized the need for a more future-centered approach in order to foresee industry shifts and adapt to changes.  However, only 23 percent of respondents are currently planning for a radically different future, illustrating that leaders have yet to close the gap that will enable them to better prepare for the future.

The online survey was sent to top business professionals in a variety of industries around the world, including pharmaceutical, consumer, academic and more.  To learn more about DSI’s future-centered consulting services, please visit www.decisionstrat.com.

About DSI (http://www.decisionstrat.com)

Founded in 1990, DSI is a recognized leader in future-centered consulting.  It provides adaptive planning and executive development to help some of the world’s leading organizations excel.  DSI has helped more than 200 organizations around the globe, including nine of the Fortune 10, through uncertainty mapping, risk mitigation, critical decision-making, change management and innovation.

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by Roch Parayre

Every spring, baseball fans everywhere wait in anticipation of opening day. They sit glued to TV screens — or, for the lucky ones, stadium seats — in awe, wondering if this could the year their beloved team wins it all. While most watch for sheer love of the game, there are real lessons to be learned.

While many fans subscribe to familiar truisms about talent, character and chemistry of winning teams, research into baseball statistics — made famous in the book and movie “Moneyball” — has proved these truisms false.

The same can be said for winning corporations. Just look at the growing corporate graveyard: Kodak, Borders and others. It seems that approaching the business world logically, with great discipline and a singular focus, is not only dangerous, it’s deadly.

So let’s borrow a few key principles from our great American pastime to help improve the odds for our great American corporations.  Read More.

The best problem solvers see a complex problem through multiple lenses. Here’s how to become a better strategic thinker and leader yourself — By: Paul Schoemaker

In 2009, J D Wetherspoon, a chain of more than 800 pubs in the UK, was facing declining sales. Demand for beer had been down for five years. In addition, pricing pressure from super market chains was intense, and higher alcohol taxes further squeezed its already tight margins.

What would you say is the company’s real business problem?

Most people see it as a sales problem and recommend better marketing and promotion. But this reflex may be wrong. In Wetherspoon’s case, the company examined the problem more deeply, looked at data, and framed the situation from multiple angles. In the end, they found the real problem: A subtle but profound shift in consumer preferences.  As a result, the chain responded with much bolder actions, transforming all its pubs into family friendly cafes during day hours.

The strategy worked. Wetherspoon saw its earnings per share jump by 7.1 percent in the first year. Two years after this frame shift (2011), it has maintained its earnings per share and, with the investment in this new strategy, its free cash flow is up 12.9 percent. Exploring multiple problem framings, by zooming out rather than in, gets you to the root of issues and more creative solutions.  Read More.

Baseball’s general managers are tasked not only with building a team that can win games this season, but also to construct a team that will be successful in the years to come. Neither is an easy job, but the latter is particularly difficult as 30 different teams jockey for top talent and contend with player injuries in a constantly-changing competitive landscape.

Major businesses across the country face the very same problem – succeed today but also be ready for what tomorrow could bring. Roch Parayre, a Senior Partner at Decision Strategies International (DSI), a future-centered consultancy firm, helps businesses prepare for those uncertain futures. DSI has advised companies like BP, Merck, Microsoft, New York Life and PepsiCo that long-term success is the result of resilient strategies. But when it comes to future planning, baseball has already given business leaders some key lessons.  Read More.

You’re the boss, but you still spend too much time on the day-to-day. Here’s how to become the strategic leader your company needs. — By: Paul Schoemaker

In the beginning, there was just you and your partners. You did every job. You coded, you met with investors, you emptied the trash and phoned in the midnight pizza. Now you have others to do all that and it’s time for you to “be strategic.”

Whatever that means.

If you find yourself resisting “being strategic,” because it sounds like a fast track to irrelevance, or vaguely like an excuse to slack off, you’re not alone. Every leader’s temptation is to deal with what’s directly in front, because it always seems more urgent and concrete. Unfortunately, if you do that, you put your company at risk. While you concentrate on steering around potholes, you’ll miss windfall opportunities, not to mention any signals that the road you’re on is leading off a cliff.

Read more and then take our strategic aptitude test to see where you match up.

DSI & Transocean to Present Industry Workforce Solution at Human Resources Conference

Presentation to Address Personnel Planning in a Global Workforce

CONSHOHOCKEN, PA., March 20, 2012 – DSI, a leading future-centered consulting firm, today announced it will be presenting with its client, Transocean Management LTD, at the Annual International Human Resources Management Forum in Houston, Texas on March 22, 2012. Samantha Howland, a DSI managing partner, and Erin Packwood, Director of Compensation & Benefits for Transocean Management LTD, will draw on their recent workforce planning pilot program to discuss the need for broad workforce planning innovation across the oil and gas industry.

“When executives think about corporate planning, it is essential to consider the emerging global landscape,” said Howland. “When it comes to human resource planning, the current model is unsustainable in this changing atmosphere.  This solution will help industry leaders take the next step in addressing the growing challenges of an international workforce.”

“This approach has changed our outlook on employee retention and acquisition,” said Clark.  “We hope this will be the first step toward industry change.  We cannot solve this problem alone, and we hope this presentation will drive that point home.”

The Conference, hosted by the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC), will include presentations from various experts about the difficulties of recruiting talent within the global workforce. With speakers from a range of disciplines addressing locals in all corners of the globe, the conference promises to generate rich insights on the opportunities internationally for the natural resources sector.

DSI is eager to share its approach with conference attendees and begin a much needed conversation about industry-wide workforce solutions.

About DSI (http://www.decisionstrat.com)

Founded in 1990, DSI is a recognized leader in future-centered consulting.  It provides adaptive planning and executive development to help some of the world’s leading organizations excel.  DSI has helped more than 200 organizations around the globe, including nine of the Fortune 10, through uncertainty mapping, risk mitigation, critical decision-making, change management and innovation.

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Press Contact for DSI:
Samantha Howland
Partner
610-234-0793
Howland@DecisionStrat.com

DSI Energy Conference Presentation Uncovers Planning Lapse

Energy Leaders Discuss a New, Narrative-based Strategy

CONSHOHOCKEN, PA., March 15, 2012 – DSI, a leading future-centered consulting firm, today announced its recent presentation at the Marcus Evans Energy Conference in London, U.K., sparked a new discussion among energy leaders. The Conference, which was attended by some of the world’s largest energy companies, such as Shell and BG Group, focused on rising trends in risk management.  During its presentation, DSI shared its unique planning approach with attendees – a short term, narrative-based strategy for plotting the future, rather than the traditional five-year, quantitative method.

“Our presentation really was a breath of fresh air for attendees.  It’s always exciting to see the light go on for executives who have been approaching a tough challenge the same way for years.  To see them realize the impact this planning shift could have on their company’s success is great,” said Arjen van den Berg, Ph.D., Principal at DSI. “We’re thrilled by the positive reception. We hope this is the first step in a new era of energy risk management.”

The Marcus Evans Energy Conference included presentations by many energy leaders, including Centrica, Eon, RWE, Statoil and Shell.  Most of the presentations centered on identifying risk, but lacked the action component.

DSI prides itself on its ability to help organizations move beyond the theoretical to action.

About DSI (http://www.decisionstrat.com)

Founded in 1990, DSI is a recognized leader in future-centered consulting.  It provides adaptive planning and executive development to help some of the world’s leading organizations excel.  DSI has helped more than 200 organizations around the globe, including nine of the Fortune 10, through uncertainty mapping, risk mitigation, critical decision-making, change management and innovation.

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